A study released
on Monday shows that people infected by the new coronavirus - Covid 19 are
symptom-free for an average of five days. As revealed by the study, 5.1 days is
the median length of time it takes for infected persons to start showing signs
of illness. A few people however take up to two weeks to become symptomatic.
The study was
carried out by Justin Lessler of the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health, and some colleagues of his. Lessler said: "Based on our analysis
of publicly available data, the current recommendation of 14 days for active
monitoring or quarantine is reasonable, although with that period some cases
would be missed over the long term."
His research was
published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine. It suggests that the
symptomatic screening for the virus, like temperature checks at airports, would
likely miss cases of recently infected persons. "If somebody is in
their incubation period, that is the window when somebody who's already been
infected can walk into the country and not be detected by symptom-based
surveillance" said Lessler.
According to
Lessler's study, 98% of people who develop symptoms of Covid-19 will do so
within 11.5 days of exposure. The study also estimates that for every 10,000
persons quarantined for 14 days, only about 101 would develop symptoms after
being released from quarantine.
Despite generally
supporting a 14-day quarantine and monitoring period, Lessler and his team caution
that quarantines wouldn't be appropriate for all. The focus on containment
has lasted a little bit too long," said Lessler. "We have to
remember, particularly now that it seems like the virus is more widespread in
parts of the United States and around the world, that the goal is not
necessarily zero cases occurring after quarantine"
Talking of a need
for focus to be redirected to mitigation, Lessler added: The goal should
be "to try to balance the risk of people spreading disease and
infecting others who might be at high risk, and slowing the epidemic.
"You just
can't remove every health care worker who's been exposed to this virus from the
population," he noted. "That would be a disaster."
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